Brazil’s Ibovespa index traded in positive territory for much of Wednesday, buoyed by the release of the first Genial/Quaest electoral poll for 2026 and investor focus on US producer price data.
According to local outlet InfoMoney, the benchmark equity index climbed almost immediately after the opening bell, defying the downward trend seen in New York markets.
Despite signs of cooling inflation in the US, the global outlook remains clouded.
Pedro Cutulo, a strategist at One Wealth Management, told the news outlet that while price pressures have moderated, geopolitical tensions remain a significant source of unease.
Further uncertainty stems from the Trump administration’s pressure on the Federal Reserve—specifically, fears of political manoeuvring designed to push Fed directors toward more market-friendly decisions.
With an empty domestic economic calendar, Brazil’s markets were left taking cues from external developments and early signals from the local political landscape.
Gains ease following announcement of US visa suspension
The Ibovespa fell below the 163,000-point threshold after rumours that the United States had banned visa issuance for Brazil and 74 other countries.
According to foreign media, the ban will begin on January 21 and last indefinitely. It will also affect Russia and Iran.
The policy affects 75 countries in total, which has increased investor caution and reduced earlier advances in Brazilian equities.
The Banco Master case and federal police operations remain under focus
The Banco Master issue remained on investors’ attention, strengthening the cautionary tone in local markets.
Brazil’s Federal Police opened the second phase of Operation Compliance Zero on Wednesday, focusing on the institution’s suspected involvement.
Banker Daniel Vorcaro and members of his family were among those targeted for the second time during the search and seizure operation.
The revelations increased anxiety in the financial sector, contributing to intraday volatility in the Ibovespa.
Poll shows Lula leading but with narrowing margins
In a 2026 election survey released Wednesday by polling agency Genial/Quaest, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holds 45% of voting intentions in a potential second-round runoff against Flávio Bolsonaro, who trails at 38%.
This compares to 46% for Lula and 36% for Bolsonaro in the previous poll published on December 16.
Following the poll’s release, the Ibovespa rallied to a record high of 163,000 points.
In a hypothetical matchup between Lula and São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas, Lula leads 44% to 39%.
This signals a tightening race; in the prior survey, Lula polled one percentage point lower, while Tarcísio has surged from 35% to 39%.
The data also points to declining rejection rates for both Tarcísio and Flávio Bolsonaro.
Although Lula remains the overall favourite in first-round scenarios, Bruno Takeo, a strategist at Potenza Capital, was quoted in the report saying that Tarcísio is becoming increasingly competitive.
Takeo adds that while the Governor has not formally announced a candidacy—and likely won’t—his improving rejection metrics make him a formidable contender.
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