The S&P 500 Index remains under pressure this week, continuing a slow downtrend that started in January when it peaked at a record high of $7,000. It has retreated by over 4.8% and is now hovering at its lowest level since November last year. Technicals suggest that this index has more downside to go as the Iran war continues.
US stocks on edge as Iran war continues
The main catalyst driving the S&P 500 Index and its ETFs, like the SPY and VOO, lower is the ongoing Iran war that has pushed volatility and energy prices higher.
Data shows that the price of all energy sources has jumped to the highest level in years. Brent and the West Texas Intermediate have jumped to $100 and $95, respectively. Natural gas has also soared in the past few days.
Most notably, Iranians and Americans have adopted a tough rhetoric, a sign that the war will not end soon. While Donald Trump has signaled that the war has two weeks to go, Israel wants a longer war. Iran, too, wants a longer war and higher energy prices. In a statement this week, Iranian officials maintained that their goal is to have oil prices jump to $200.
On the positive side, the US and its allies have implemented some measures that may ameliorate the pain in the energy sector. They agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves and ease Russian sanctions, a move that will bring millions of barrels online.
Higher energy prices will automatically trigger inflation, making it almost impossible for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates as Donald Trump has called for. Goldman Sachs analysts believe that the Fed will deliver one rate cut this year.
The S&P 500 Index is also tumbling because of the rising concerns about the private credit sector. Some top companies involved in the booming sector like Blue Owl, Ares, and Blackstone, have experienced substantial outflows recently.
Top VOO ETF movers
Most companies in the S&P 500 Index have crashed in the past few days as the Iran war has continued. Fair Isaac, which generates credit reports, has slumped by over 25% in the last week. Centene, Paramount Skydance, and Old Dominion have plunged by over 18% in the same period.
Other notable laggards were companies like Ares Management, Southwest, The Trade Desk, International Paper, and Charles River Laboratories.
On the other hand, companies like CF Industries and Mosaic have jumped because of their exposure in the fertilizer industry. LyondellBasell Industries, Dow, Kroger, Bunge, and CrowdStrike were the best gainers.
S&P 500 Index technical analysis
SPX Index chart | Source: TradingView
The daily chart shows that the S&P 500 Index has plunged in the past few days, moving from a high of $7,000 to the current $6,673. It has formed a rounded top pattern, which often leads to more downward momentum.
The index has crashed below the 50-day moving average, while most oscillators have continued moving downwards. Therefore, the path of the least resistance for the blue-chip index is downwards, with the next key target being at $6,500, the 23.6% retracement level.
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