The S&P 500 Index remained under pressure last week, falling to its lowest level since November 2025. It dropped to $6,632 on Friday, down sharply from the year-to-date high of $7,700. This article explores some of the top catalysts for the S&P 500 Index and its ETFs like VOO and SPY.
S&P 500 Index to react to Federal Reserve interest rate decision
A major catalyst for the S&P 500 Index and its ETFs this week will come out on Wednesday when the Federal Reserve delivers its interest rate decision on Wednesday.
Economists expect the central bank to leave interest rates unchanged between 3.50% and 3.75%. Officials will also send a signal on what to expect this year now that the US has moved into a stagflation.
Data released this month showed that the labor market weakened in February, with the economy losing over 92,000 jobs. The unemployment rate rose from 4.3% in January to 4.4% in February.
Another report showed that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose in February. It rose 2.4% in February, while the core inflation rose 2.5%.
Therefore, analysts expect that the bank will maintain interest rates unchanged in the foreseeable future.
Top corporate earnings
The S&P 500 Index has retreated after the recent earnings season, which was highly positive. Data compiled by FactSet showed that the average earnings growth rose by over 13% in the fourth quarter of last year, with most companies, including popular names like Nvidia and Apple.
More smaller companies will publish their financial results this week but the impact on the S&P 500 Index will be limited. Dollar Tree and Aramark will publish their financial results before the markets open on Monday.
Elbit Systems, Lululemon, DocuSign, and Okta will release their numbers on Tuesday, while Micron, Jabil, Williams-Sonoma, and General Mills will release on Wednesday. The other top companies to publish their numbers are Accenture, FedEx, Darden, and Planet Labs will release their numbers later this week.
Iran war continues, pushing crude oil prices higher
The S&P 500 Index will react to the ongoing Iran war that has continued in the past few weeks. This war has pushed crude oil prices to the highest level in years, with Brent and the West Texas Intermediate moving to $100.
Natural gas, heating oil, and other energy prices have jumped. Similarly, fertilizer prices have soared, leading to a surge in fertilizer stocks like Nutrien and Mosaic.
Signs that the war is accelerating will lead to more S&P 500 Index downside. On the other hand, signs that the war is ending will be bullish for the stock market.
S&P 500 Index technical analysis
S&P 500 Index chart | Source: TradingView
The daily timeframe chart shows that the S&P 500 Index has come under pressure in the past few weeks as the stock market has moved from one crisis to the other, including the woes in the private credit sector.
It has moved from a high of $7,000 in February to $6,630. As a result, the index has moved below the 50-day and 25-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA).
The stock has formed a rounded top, a common bearish continuation sign in technical analysis. It remains slightly above the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level at $6,495.
Top oscillators have continued falling, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) have continued falling in the past few months.
Therefore, the index will likely continue falling, with the next key target being the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level at $6,178.
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