AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) tumbled sharply on Friday morning after its key launch partner – Blue Origin – suffered a catastrophic rocket explosion overnight.
During a scheduled static fire test last night, its New Glenn rocket experienced a malfunction and exploded on the pad at Launch Complex 36 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station.
The blast sent a massive fireball into the Florida sky and raised immediate fears about Blue Origin’s ability to deliver future launches for ASTS’s satellite constellation.
Despite the crash, AST SpaceMobile stock remains up roughly 30% versus the start of this year.
Here’s why the Blue Origin disaster is bearish for ASTS Shares
The aforementioned explosion is not AST SpaceMobile’s first brush with Blue Origin misfortune – it’s the second, and that’s what makes this moment sting harder.
Earlier this year (April 19th), Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket lifted off on its third mission – the booster successfully completed its flight and landed on a drone ship at sea.
Then the second stage malfunctioned, failing to deliver BlueBird 7 to its planned orbital altitude.
AST’s engineers confirmed that BlueBird 7’s onboard propulsion system could not compensate for the deficit, and the satellite was declared lost.
The monetary hit is expected to be in the range of $155 million to $160 million, with the company planning an asset write-off in the second quarter of 2026.
Now, with “LC-36” potentially out of commission for an extended period, it’s impossible to know exactly how long it will take to resume launch operations at the pad.
The ripple effects could be substantial: if the issue is connected to the main propulsion system and the rocket’s “BE-4 engines”, that might have a direct impact on United Launch Alliance’s Vulcan rockets, which also use the BE-4 engine for their first stage.
ASTS shares tanked this morning because two consecutive Blue Origin failures tied to the same vehicle are the kind of track record that makes any customer nervous.
Is it worth loading up on AST SpaceMobile stock today?
The case for buying the dip in AST SpaceMobile shares rests on one important fact: the company hasn’t put all its eggs in Blue Origin’s basket.
BlueBird 8, BlueBird 9, and BlueBird 10 remain on track for delivery to “Cape Canaveral” and an expected orbital launch in mid-June on a SpaceX Falcon 9 launch vehicle.
That upcoming mission is entirely unaffected by this latest explosion at LC-36.
ASTS network deployment is targeting about 45 BlueBird satellites in orbit during 2026, supported by manufacturing agreements with multiple launch providers, including Blue Origin, SpaceX, and others.
The company also retains a formidable financial cushion.
AST SpaceMobile currently has roughly $3.5 billion in cash, and management has recently reiterated its full-year guidance for as much as $200 million in revenue.
BlueBird 11 through BlueBird 33 are in advanced stages of production and assembly, with phased arrays completed through BlueBird 28, reinforcing that the manufacturing pipeline is running well ahead of the launch schedule.
For risk-tolerant investors, the dip in ASTS may represent a compelling re-entry point into a story that still has powerful long-term tailwinds.
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