US stock futures were subdued on Tuesday as investors weighed a fresh surge in oil against hopes that strong corporate earnings can keep Wall Street’s record run intact.
Dow futures slipped 0.1%, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 contracts were little changed to slightly higher.
The cautious tone followed another escalation in the US-Iran standoff that pushed Brent towards $90 a barrel and revived inflation concerns just a day before July CPI.
With the Federal Reserve’s September decision now close to a coin toss, traders are balancing geopolitical risk, stretched technology valuations and a final burst of earnings from companies tied to AI, healthcare and consumer spending.
5 things to know before Wall Street opens
1. Oil is back at the centre of the Fed debate
Brent climbed more than 2% on Tuesday after surging in the previous session as hopes for a quick reopening of the Strait of Hormuz faded.
The rally carried the benchmark close to $90, while US crude moved above $83.
The latest escalation followed President Donald Trump’s response to Iranian demands for compensation, which added another obstacle to negotiations over the strategic waterway.
Higher crude is beginning to matter beyond the energy market, with Treasury yields also responding as traders reassess the inflation outlook.
2. Wednesday’s CPI could decide the September setup
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release July CPI at 8.30 am ET on Wednesday.
June inflation slowed to 3.5% year on year, but markets are now watching whether energy costs and other price pressures begin to reappear.
The Fed, led by Chair Kevin Warsh, has reduced its reliance on forward guidance, making incoming economic data more important for policy expectations.
Futures pricing is now close to evenly divided between another September increase and no change.
3. Nvidia steadies after Monday’s pullback
Nvidia edged higher before the bell after declining in Monday’s session, keeping the chipmaker at the centre of the debate over whether extraordinary AI infrastructure spending can continue supporting technology valuations.
That debate is widening beyond semiconductor sales.
Investors are increasingly examining how data-centre construction is being financed, how quickly cloud revenue is growing and whether cash generation can keep pace with capital expenditure.
4. Intel and Riot show two ways to fund the AI build-out
Intel fell before the bell after pricing an upsized $20 billion share offering at $95 each. The company is selling about 210.5 million shares, with underwriters receiving an option for additional stock.
The transaction was increased from an originally planned $15 billion offering.
Riot Platforms moved in the opposite direction, jumping more than 20% after reports that Anthropic had agreed to a 20-year cloud-computing contract worth about $9.1 billion.
5. Rocket Lab and Hims add single-stock volatility
Rocket Lab dropped more than 8% after reporting record second-quarter revenue of $234 million, up 62% from a year earlier, but delivering a wider-than-expected per-share loss.
Management said Neutron remained on course for a fourth-quarter launch-pad rollout, although the probability of a debut flight before year-end had narrowed.
Hims & Hers fell after reporting an $86.3 million second-quarter net loss, compared with a $42.5 million profit a year earlier, even as revenue rose 38% to $753.2 million.
With most S&P 500 companies already through earnings season, attention is shifting from whether profits were strong to whether inflation, oil, and interest rates will enable those earnings to support elevated valuations.
That shift also matters for investors using ETF platforms to gain broad exposure to the S&P 500, Nasdaq, or technology sectors.
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