US stock futures edged lower on Monday as Wall Street entered one of August’s most consequential weeks, with Nvidia earnings, new sanctions on Iran and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole address all capable of resetting market sentiment.
Nasdaq 100 futures fell about 0.6%, while S&P 500 futures slipped roughly 0.2% and Dow futures hovered around flat in early trading.
Technology shares remain particularly sensitive after higher Treasury yields drove the S&P 500 technology sector down more than 3% last week.
Meanwhile, a renewed US-Canada trade dispute has added another macro risk just as investors debate the durability of the AI rally.
5 things to know before market opens
1. Nvidia faces the week’s biggest market test
Nvidia reports fiscal second-quarter results on Wednesday, August 26, in what may prove the most important test yet for the AI trade.
Investor’s Business Daily says Wall Street expects another quarter of exceptional revenue and earnings growth, but the stock enters the report after five consecutive declines.
The hurdle is rising further after Bloomberg reported that some customers have been told AI server prices could increase by more than 15% as memory costs surge.
2. Iran sanctions could move oil again
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected to outline tougher sanctions on Iran at 2 pm ET, potentially targeting countries and companies that continue trading with Tehran.
Oil prices fell before the announcement as traders locked in profits, with Brent dropping towards $91 and WTI near $85.
Commerzbank analysts, in comments carried by The Wall Street Journal, see buyers of Iranian oil as a likely focus of the sanctions. Any measures that materially restrict exports could quickly restore upward pressure on crude and inflation.
3. Treasury yields remain a problem for tech
The bond market remains central to the equity outlook after the 30-year Treasury yield reached around 5.34% last week, its highest level in 19 years.
Washington’s decision to expand long-dated Treasury buybacks briefly calmed markets, but investors remain focused on record government debt and persistent deficits.
For technology stocks, sustained high yields mean a higher discount rate on future earnings just as companies are borrowing heavily to fund AI infrastructure.
4. Jackson Hole and PCE could reset Fed bets
Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole on Friday, August 28, while July PCE inflation data arrive earlier in the week.
The Fed calendar confirms Warsh’s keynote address, which will be scrutinised for any shift in his approach to inflation and rates.
Markets have scaled back expectations for an immediate rate increase after softer inflation data, but persistent oil pressure and high bond yields leave the September decision far from settled.
5. Canada adds another trade headache
The US-Canada trade relationship has also deteriorated sharply.
Washington imposed 50% tariffs on about $20 billion of Canadian imports after negotiations collapsed, while Canada plans matching retaliation from September 8.
For investors using trading platforms to track globally exposed companies, the dispute adds another source of inflation and earnings uncertainty.
The Wall Street Journal said the tensions also contributed to Monday’s weakness in Nasdaq futures.
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