US stock futures were mixed on Friday as investors prepared for a jobs report that could decide whether the Federal Reserve moves again in September, while fresh earnings strength pushed technology shares higher before the bell.
Dow futures were little changed and S&P 500 contracts added about 0.2%, while Nasdaq 100 futures rose 120 points, or 0.5%.
The major indexes were still heading for a strong week after AI-linked earnings helped the S&P 500 and Dow reach records and pulled the Nasdaq back from its recent correction.
Atlassian, Microchip Technology and Cloudflare led the latest pre-market gains, but rising oil prices kept inflation risk firmly in view.
5 things to know before Wall Street opens
1. Wall Street’s rally faces its biggest macro test of the week
The S&P 500 and Dow are on course for their strongest weekly performance since April, while the Nasdaq is heading for its best week since May.
That resilience follows a sharp rebound in AI and semiconductor shares after July’s sell-off.
Thursday had already shown how quickly sentiment can turn: the S&P 500 lost 0.2%, the Dow fell 0.9% and the Nasdaq slipped 0.1% as oil and bond yields rose.
2. Payrolls could settle the September Fed debate
The Labor Department’s July jobs report, due at 8.30 am ET, is the session’s main event.
Economists expect payrolls to rise by about 80,000 after a 57,000 increase in June, with unemployment holding at 4.2% and annual wage growth around 3.5%.
The significance extends well beyond the labour market. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has offered little explicit forward guidance, leaving traders unusually dependent on each major data release.
Futures pricing has moved towards an almost even split between no change and a September rate increase.
A strong employment report could lift short-term Treasury yields and revive pressure on expensive growth stocks; a weak one could do the opposite.
3. Atlassian and Microchip revive the growth-stock trade
Corporate results are giving the Nasdaq an early advantage. Atlassian surged about 30% before the bell after beating revenue expectations as cloud growth accelerated.
Microchip Technology climbed roughly 9% after forecasting quarterly revenue above Wall Street estimates.
Cloudflare gained more than 15% after raising its full-year revenue forecast, helping lift other software and cybersecurity shares. Marvell, Micron, Palo Alto Networks and ServiceNow also advanced.
The response is notable after Thursday’s punishment of several storage and software names.
Investors are still willing to pay for AI and cloud growth, but the threshold has risen sharply: guidance now matters at least as much as the quarter just reported.
Airbnb was another standout, gaining about 11% after raising its full-year revenue outlook as travel demand remained firm.
4. Trump’s polysilicon move creates a new solar trade
Solar shares were another pocket of strength after the White House imposed a 15% tariff and a system of minimum import prices on polysilicon and related products.
The measures are designed to reduce US dependence on Chinese supply chains for a material used heavily in solar manufacturing and semiconductor production.
The new framework is scheduled to take effect in December.
First Solar gained almost 9% before the bell and SolarEdge advanced around 2%.
The policy may support domestic producers, though higher import costs could create fresh margin pressure elsewhere in the supply chain.
5. Oil keeps the inflation risk alive
Brent crude climbed above $83 a barrel on Friday as uncertainty returned around plans to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran is considering restrictions and penalties on US, Israeli and other vessels deemed hostile, while Houthi attacks have added to concerns around Saudi supply routes.
Crude remains sharply lower for the week, but the latest rebound matters for equities because energy prices feed directly into inflation expectations.
Short-term Treasury yields remained above 4%, leaving technology valuations vulnerable if stronger payrolls and higher oil combine to revive the case for tighter Fed policy.
That leaves Friday’s market setup unusually simple: strong earnings are keeping the risk trade alive, but the jobs report will decide whether bond yields allow it to continue.
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